Tuesday, 1 December 2009

17:30 – 19:00

Registration and Welcome Reception
Mediterranean Pre-function Area

Wednesday, 2 December 2009

07:30

Registration
 Mediterranean Pre-function Area

08:30

Welcome from Conference Chair
A. McLean; University of Oxford, UK Mediterranean Ballroom

08:40

Plenary [INV1] Chair: A. McLean
Within patient evolution of HIV during early infection
B. Korber; Los Alamos National Institute, USA

09:20

Plenary [INV2]
How do natural reservoir hosts for AIDS viruses and other emerging zoonotic infections remain healthy?
M. Feinberg; Merck Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, USA

10:30

Network structure of HIV transmission chains reconstructed from viral sequences [1A.1]
A.J. Leigh Brown*¹, S.J. Lycett¹, G.J. Hughes¹, E.L. Fearnhill², D.T. Dunn², A. Rambaut¹; ¹University of Edinburgh, UK, ²MRC Clinical Trials Unit, UK

Optimization of targeted epidemic intervention strategies [1B.1]
N.B. Dimitrov*, S. Goll, L.A. Meyers; University of Texas at Austin, USA

10:50

Phylogeographical dynamics of HIV among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the UK [1A.2]
L.A. Weinert*¹, G.J. Hughes¹, E. Fernhill², D. Dunn², A. Rambaut¹, A.J. Leigh Brown¹; ¹University of Edinburgh, UK, ²Medical Research Council, UK

Forecasting trachoma: Control, elimination, or eradication? [1B.2]
T.M. Lietman, K.J. Ray, T.C. Porco*; University of California at San Francisco, USA

11:10

Complex epidemiological dynamics generate phylogenetic clustering of HIV in Montreal [1A.3]
E.M. Volz*¹, E.O. Romero-Severson¹, S.J. Alam¹, D.A. Stephens², B.G. Brenner², M.A. Wainberg²; ¹University of Michigan, USA, ²McGill University, Canada, ³Centre Hospitalier Universite Montreal, Canada

Modeling the population-level effects of male circumcision as an HIV-preventive measure [1B.3]
J. Dushoff*, C.-F. Shi, A. Patocs; McMaster University, Canada

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11:30

Temporal changes in the HIV-1 evolutionary rate reveal epidemic dynamics [1A.4]
I. Maljkovic Berry*¹,², G. Athreya¹, M. Kothari¹,
M. Daniels¹, W. Bruno¹, B. Korber¹; ¹Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA, ²Center for Nonlinear Studies (CNLS), Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA

The impact of vaccination on the dynamics of rotavirus epidemics in the USA [1B.4]
V.E. Pitzer¹,², C. Viboud*², L. Simonsen³, M.A. Miller²,
U.D. Parashar⁴, B.T. Grenfell¹,²; ¹Penn State University, USA, ²National Institutes of Health, USA, ³George Washington University, USA, ⁴Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, USA

11:50

Comparative phylodynamics and episodic high-risk sex in Montreal and New York City [1A.5]
E.O. Romero-Severson*¹, E. Volz¹, S.J. Alam¹, D.A. Stephens², B.G. Brenner², M.A. Wainberg², D. Castor³, M. Roger⁴, J.S. Koopman¹ ; ¹University of Michigan, USA, ²McGill University, Canada, ³Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center, USA, ⁴Centre Hospitalier Universite Montreal, Canada

Risk based surveillance of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the Swiss poultry flock in the absence of outbreak data [1B.5]
L. Fiebig*¹, J. Saurina¹, T. Smieszek², J. Hattendorf¹,
J. Zinsstag¹; ¹Swiss Tropical Institute, Switzerland, ²ETH Zurich, Switzerland

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12:10

Evolution of hepatitis C virus quasispecies shows significant constraints in its exploration of sequence space [1A.6]
D.S. Campo Rendon*, Z. Dimitrova, J. Yokosawa, S. Ramachandran, D. Hoang, Y. Khudyakov; Centers for Disease Control, USA

Erratic vaccination predicted by rational behaviour [1B.6]
D.M. Cornforth*¹, T.C. Reluga³, E. Shim², C.T. Bauch⁴, A.P. Galvani², L.A. Meyers¹; ¹University of Texas at Austin, USA, ²Yale University, USA, ³Pennsylvania State University, USA, ⁴University of Guelph, Canada

13:30

Transmission and within-host dynamics of the foot-and-mouth disease virus [2A.1]
R. Howey*¹, B. Bankowski², N. Juleff², M. Chase-Topping¹, D. Gibson², N. Savill¹; ¹University of Edinburgh, UK, ²Institute for Animal Health, UK

Influenza A and B transmission and control in public schools in Pittsburgh, PA [2B.1]
S. Stebbins¹, D. Cummings², J. Stark*¹, C. Vukotich¹,
D. Burke¹; ¹University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health, USA, ²Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, USA

13:50

The phylogenetic comparative approach to study the heritability of HIV-1 infection life-history traits [2A.2]
S. Alizon¹, V. von Wyl², T. Stadler¹*, R. Kouyos¹ , S. Yerly³, J. Böni⁴, C. Shah⁴, T. Klimkait⁵,
P. Bürgisser⁶, H.F. Günthard², S. Bonhoeffer¹, The Swiss HIV Cohort Study; ¹ETH Zürich, Switzerland, ²University Hospital Zürich, Switzerland, ³Geneva University Hospital, Switzerland, ⁴Swiss University of Zürich, Switzerland, ⁵University of Basel, Switzerland, ⁶Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland

Understanding the dynamics of seasonal influenza in Italy: An analysis of disease incidence and population susceptibility [2B.2]
A. Lunelli¹, E. Montomoli², C. Rizzo³, A. Bella³,
A. Pugliese*¹, ¹University of Trento, Italy, ²University of Siena, Italy, ³Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Italy

14:10

[2A.3] WITHDRAWN
NOW [P1.24]
Understanding the mechanisms underlying the slow development of protective immunity in human schistosomiasis
K.M. Mitchell*, F. Mutapi, M.E.J. Woolhouse; University of Edinburgh, UK

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Population modelling of influenza A/H1N1 virus shedding kinetics and symptoms dynamics (VKSD) [2B.3]
L. Canini*¹,², F. Carrat¹,²,³ ; ¹ Université Pierre Marie Curie – Paris 6, France, ² Inserm, UMR-S 707, France,
 ³, Hôpital Saint Antoine, France

14:30

No immunization of non-human primates by repeated low-dose challenges with SIV [2A.4]
R.R. Regoes; ETH Zurich, Switzerland

Estimating influenza hospitalization burden and the impact of antigenic variation [2B.4]
C. Ringholz*¹,², W.W. Thompson³, D.K. Shay³, H. Zhou³, P.Y. Cheng³, C.A. Steiner⁴, D.J. Smith1,⁵,⁶, C.A. Russel;¹,⁵, M.A. Miller¹, L. Simonsen⁷, C. Viboud¹; ¹National Institutes of Health, USA, ²Analytic Services Inc, USA, ³Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, USA, ⁴Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, USA, ⁵University of Cambridge, UK, ⁶Eramus Medical Center, The Netherlands, ⁷ George Washington University, USA

14:50

Reassessing the HIV-1 life cycle through age-structured modeling: Lifespan of infected cells, viral generation time and R0 [2A.5]
C.L. Althaus*¹,², R.J. De Boer¹; ¹Utrecht University, The Netherlands, ²University of Bern, Switzerland

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Temporal and spatial effects of lunar calendar holidays on Influenza: A transmission in Israel [2B.5]
J. Kaufman*¹, S. Edlund¹, M. Bromberg², G. Chodick³,
J. Lessler⁴, J. Douglas¹, Z. Kaufman², A. Leventhal⁶,
R. Marom³, V. Shalev³; ¹IBM Almaden Research Center, USA, ²Israel Center for Disease Control, Israel, ³Maccabi Health Care Services, Israel, ⁴Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, USA, ⁵IBM Haifa Research Center, Israel; ⁶Israel Ministry of Health, Israel

15:10

Bridging between parasite genomic data and within-host processes: Trypanosome dynamics and the VSG archive [2A.6]
E. Gjini*¹, C. Cobbold¹, D. Haydon², J.D. Barry³; ¹University of Glasgow, UK, ²Glasgow Biomedical Research Centre, UK

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Explaining the three mortality waves of the UK 1918-19 influenza pandemic [2A.6]
J.M. McCaw*, P.K. Pallaghy, J. McVernon, J.D. Mathews; University of Melbourne, Australia

15:50

Utilizing new methods to estimate incidence and reproduction numbers of pertussis using serological and social contact data [3A.1]
M. Kretzschmar*¹,², P. Teunis², R. Pebody³, ¹University Medical Centre Utrecht, The Netherlands, ²RIVM, The Netherlands, ³Health Protection Agency, UK

Spatial spread of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England and Wales and the USA [3B.1]
R.M. Eggo*, S. Cauchemez, N.M. Ferguson; Imperial College London, UK

16:10

Measuring social networks in schools [3A.2]
K.T.D. Eames*¹, A.J.K. Conlan², J.A. Gage²,
R.A. Saenz², J.C. von Kirchbach², J.R. Gog²; ¹London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK, ²University of Cambridge, UK

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Global estimates of the impact of the 1918 Spanish influenza: Some perils of using annual mortality data [3B.2]
V. Andreasen*¹, C. Viboud², N. Saglanmak¹,², D. Olson³,
L. Simonsen⁴; ¹Roskilde University, Denmark, ²National Institutes of Health, USA, ³International Society for Disease Surveillance, USA, ⁴George Washington University, USA

16:30

Impact of partnership network structure on the spread of sexually transmitted infections [3A.3]
C.L. Althaus*¹, J.C.M. Heijne¹, S. Herzog¹,
A. Roellin¹,², P.M. Barton³, C.H. Mercer⁴; ¹University of Bern, Switzerland, ²National University of Singapore, Singapore, ³University of Birmingham, UK, ⁴University College London, UK

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The 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in Mexico: Age-specific mortality patterns and estimates of transmissibility [3B.3]
G.Chowell¹,², L. Simonsen³, C. Viboud*², M. Miller²,
R. Acuna-Soto⁴, ¹Arizona State University, USA, ²National Institutes of Health, USA, ³George Washington University, USA, ⁴Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico

16:50

The impact of network link dynamics on real epidemics [3A.4]
R.R. Kao*, A.N. Comanici; University of Glasgow, UK

How vaccination has helped the persistence of equine influenza [3B.4]
M.J.M. Baguelin*¹, J.L.N. Wood²; ¹Health Protection Agency, UK, ²University of Cambridge, UK

17:10

A nation-wide survey of social contact patterns within the UK [3A.5]
J.M. Read*¹, T. House², L. Danon², J.C. Brown², M.J. Keeling²; ¹University of Liverpool, UK, ²University of Warwick, UK

Quantifying the impact of mass H5N1 poultry vaccination in Vietnam [3B.5]
P.T.G. Walker*¹, S. Cauchemez¹, R. Metras²,³, D.H. Dung⁴, D. Pfeiffer², A. Ghani¹; ¹Imperial College London, UK, ²Royal Veterinary College, UK, ³International Livestock Research Institute, Kenya, ⁴Department of Animal Health, Vietnam

17:30

Little-Italy: An agent-based approach to the estimation of contact data [3A.6]
F. Iozzi¹, M. Chinazzi¹, F. Trusiano², P. Manfredi³*, F. Billari¹, E. Zagheni⁴; ¹Università Bocconi, Italy, ²George Mason University, USA, ³Università di Pisa, Italy, ⁴University of California at Berkeley, USA, ⁵FBK, Italy

Identifying natural reservoir hosts in a multi-host population: A case study of influenza in waterfowl [3B.6]
H. Nishiura*¹, B. Hoye², M. Klaassen², S. Bauer²,³,
J.A. Heesterbeek¹; ¹University of Utrecht, The Netherlands, ²Netherlands Institute of Ecology, The Netherlands, ³Swiss Ornithological Institute, Switzerland

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17:50 - 19:30

Poster Session One and Drinks Reception
Aegean Ballroom

Thursday, 3 December 2009

08:30

Plenary [INV3] Chair: S. Bonhoeffer
Evolution-proofing malaria control
A. Read; Pennsylvania State University, USA Mediterranean Ballroom

09:10

Plenary [INV4]
Emerging infections of crop plants: From molecular interactions to food security policy
S. Gurr; University of Oxford, UK

10:20

Influenza dynamics with inflammation [4A.1]
I. Price*¹, D. Swigon¹, G.B. Ermentrout¹, F. Toapanta², T. Ross², G. Clermont²,¹; ¹University of Pittsburgh, USA, ²University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, USA

Transmission dynamics of novel H1N1 influenza in the UK: Analysis of the first few hundred cases [4B.1]
A.C. Ghani; MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis & Modelling, Imperial College London, UK, Health Protection Agency, UK

10:40

Experimental and theoretical perspective of SHIV pathogenesis [4A.2]
S.Iwami¹,² , T. Miura2, Y. Takeuchi³
¹PRESTO, Japan Science and Techonology Agency (JST), Japan, (PRESTO: Precursory Research for Embryonic Science and Technology), University of Tokyo, Japan, ²Kyoto University, Japan, ³Shizuoka University, Japan

Transmission of novel Influenza A(H1N1) virus in households in the USA [4B.2]
S. Cauchemez¹, C.A. Donnelly¹, C. Reed², A.C. Ghani*¹,
C. Fraser¹, C. Kent², R. Howey¹; ¹Imperial College London, UK, ²CDC, USA

11:00

Estimation of cellular kinetics and viral dynamics during innate and adaptive immune responses for influenza infection in mouse [4A.3]
H. Wu; University of Rochester, USA

One versus two doses: Optimal vaccination strategies for pandemic influenza [4B.3]
L. Matrajt*¹,², I.M. Longini Jr.¹; ¹Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, USA, ²University of Washington, USA

11:20

Dose-dependent host-pathogen kinetics and dynamics in the rabbit following inhalation of aerosolized Ames strain Bacillus anthracis spores [4A.4]
B.W. Gutting*¹, G.A. Andrews¹, S.C. Taft²,
T.L. Nichols², J.M. Gearhart³, A.E. Director-Myska⁴; ¹Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren Division, USA, ²Environmental Protection Agency, USA, ³Wright Patterson Air Force Base, USA, ⁴Defense Threat Reduction Agency, USA

Real-time modelling of swine influenza in the UK [4B.4]
G. Ketsetzis*, B. Cooper, D. DeAngelis; Health Protection Agency, UK

11:40

Within-host modelling of E-Coli 0157 and the role of Shiga-like toxins [4A.5]
M.J. Tildesley*, D.L. Gally, N.J. Savill; University of Edinburgh, UK

Early estimates of the reproductive number and the serial interval in the current influenza A/H1N1 outbreak [4B.5]
L.F. White*¹,², J. Wallinga⁴,⁵, L. Finelli³, S. Riley⁶,
M. Lipsitch², M. Pagano²; ¹Boston University School of Public Health, USA, ²Harvard School of Public Health, USA, ³Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, USA, ⁴National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, The Netherlands, ⁵Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, The Netherlands, ⁶University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

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12:00

Quantitative analysis of immune response and erythropoiesis during malarial infection [4A.6]
M.R. Miller*¹, A.F. Read², L. Raberg³, N.J. Savill¹; ¹University of Edinburgh, UK, ²Pennsylvania State University, USA, ³Lund University, Sweden

Worldwide spread of the unfolding swine flu epidemic: Early assessment and long-term predictions [4B.6]
P. Bajardi¹, D. Balcan², V. Colizza*¹, B. Goncalves², H. Hu², D. Paolotti¹, C. Poletto¹, N. Perra², J. Ramasco¹, M. Tizzoni¹, W. van den Broeck¹, A. Vespignani¹,²; ¹ISI Foundation, Italy, ²Indiana University, USA

13:20

On being the right size: The impact of population size and stochastic effects on the transmission of drug resistance in the hospital and the community [5A.1]
R.D. Kouyos*, P. Schulz zur Wiesch,
S. Bonhoeffer; ETH Zurich, Switzerland

Adaptation of H1N1 and H5N1 influenza viruses to mammalian hosts [5B.1]
S.J. Lycett*, M. Weiland, J. Raghwani, A. Rambaut,
A.J. Leigh-Brown; University of Edinburgh, UK

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13:40

Relationship between capsular serotype specific carriage duration and susceptibility to antibiotics in Streptococcus pneumoniae [5A.2]
S.R. Deeny*¹, M. Lipsitch², C. Colijn³, T. Cohen⁴, W.P. Hanage¹, C. Fraser¹; ¹Imperial College London, UK, ²Harvard School of Public Health, USA, ³University of Bristol, UK, ⁴Harvard Medical School, UK

Vaccination strategies to mitigate pandemic influenza: Mexico as a case study [5B.2]
G. Chowell¹,², C. Viboud²*, X. Wang¹, M. Miller²; ¹Arizona State University, USA, ²National Institutes of Health, USA

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14:00

Late-life acting insecticides - evolution-proof insecticides for malaria control [5A.3]
P.A. Lynch*¹, M.B. Thomas², A.F. Read²; ¹The Open University, UK, ²Penn State University, USA

The shifting epidemiological landscape of influenza [5B.3]
S. Bansal*¹,⁴, B. Pourbohloul², L.A. Meyers³; ¹Penn State University, USA, ²UBC Centre for Disease Control, Canada, ³University of Texas at Austin, USA, ⁴National Institutes of Health, USA

14:20

Marek's disease virus: Defining virulence and understanding the drivers of evolution [5A.4]
K.E. Atkins*¹, M.E.J. Woolhouse¹, A.F. Read²; ¹University of Edinburgh, UK, ²Pennsylvania State University, USA

Estimation of epidemiological parameters in real time during the early UK swine flu epidemic [5B.4]
M.J.M. Baguelin*¹, A.J. Van Hoek¹, S. Flasche¹, B. Cooper¹, R. Pebody¹, P. White¹; ¹Health Protection Agency, UK, ²London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK

14:40

The dynamics of rice blast race frequency estimated by a mathematical model based on the evolutionary interaction between rice and rice blast [5A.5]
J. Nakabayashi*, A. Sasaki; Graduate University for Advanced Studies, Japan

The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in England and the United States, April – August 2009 [5.4]
A.M. Presanis*¹, D. De Angelis²,¹, R.Pebody², HPA Flu Team², The New York City Swine Flu Investigation Team³, A. Hagy⁴, S. Riley⁵, B.S. Cooper², P. Biedrzycki⁴, M. Lipsitch⁶ ;¹MRC Biostatistics Unit, UK; ²Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, UK, ³Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, USA, ⁴City of Milwaukee, USA ⁵The University of Hong Kong, China, ⁶Harvard School of Public Health, USA

15:00

Modelling strategies of genetic control of mosquito populations to combat malaria [5A.6]
A. Deredec*, A. Burt; Imperial College London, UK

Replacement of the previously circulating influenza subtypes by the novel A/H1N1 strain: framework and conditions [5B.6]
E. Vergu¹, S. Ballesteros²,³, A. Camacho²,³, P.-Y. Boëlle³,⁴, A. Flahault⁴,⁵, B.Cazelles²,³ ; ¹INRA, MIA UR341, France, ²Ecole Normale Supérieure, UMR 7625 (UPMC, ENS, AgroParisTech, CNRS), France, ³Université Pierre et Marie Curie-Paris6, France, ⁴INSERM, UMR S 707, France, ⁵EHESP School of Public Health, Rennes and Paris, France

15:40

Seasonal and interannual dynamics of cholera epidemics in Asia [6A.1]
G. Constantin de Magny*¹, M.R.P. Sapiano², R. Murtugudde², N.C. Sharma³, M. Yunus⁴, B.G. Nair⁵ K. Rajendran5, A. Huq⁶, R. B. Sack⁷,
R. R. Colwell¹,⁷; ¹University of Maryland, USA, ²Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, USA, ³Maharishi Valmiki Infectious Diseases Hospital, India, ⁴International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, ⁵National Institute of Cholera and Enteric Diseases, India, ⁶Maryland Pathogen Research Institute, USA, ⁷DIH Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, USA

Association between highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus outbreaks in wild birds in Europe and the 0°C isotherm [6B.1]
L.A. Reperant*¹, N.S. Fuckar¹, A.D.M.E. Osterhaus², A.P. Dobson¹, T. Kuiken²; ¹Princeton University, USA, ²Erasmus Medical Centre, The Netherlands

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16:00

Estimation of risk for transfer of a cryptic infection in plant populations [6A.2]
A. Kleczkowski*¹, D.J. Bailey², C.A. Gilligan³; ¹University of Stirling, UK, ²INRA Rennes, France, ³University of Cambridge, UK

Dissecting the influences of climate and demography on the dynamics of leptospirosis in California sea lions [6B.2]
J.O. Lloyd-Smith*¹, K.M. Pepin², D.J. Greig³, S.R. Melin⁴, J.L. Laake⁴, M.S. Lowry⁵; ¹University of California at Los Angeles, USA, ²Pennsylvania State University, USA, ³The Marine Mammal Center, USA, ⁴National Marine Fisheries Service National Marine Mammal Laboratory, USA, ⁵National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Fisheries Science Center, USA, ⁶US Department of Agriculture National Animal Disease Center, USA, ⁷Princeton University, USA

16:20

Micro and macro population effects in disease transmission: The case of varicella [6A.3]
R. Silhol*¹,², A. Flahault²,³, P.Y. Boëlle¹,²; ¹Université Pierre et Marie Curie, France, ²INSERM, France, ³French School of Public Health, France

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Endemic anthrax in the herbivores of Etosha National Park: A disease and movement ecology perspective focusing on zebra, elephants, and scavengers [6B.3]
W.M. Getz*¹,², S. Bellan¹, J. Brashares¹, C. Cizauskas¹,
H. Ganz¹, P. Kamath¹; ¹University of California at Berkeley, USA, ²University of Pretoria, South Africa

16:40

Comparative spatial dynamics of acute viral infections in the USA [6A.4]
C. Viboud¹, V.E. Pitzer*¹,², L. Simonsen³,
U. Parashar⁴, M.A. Miller¹, B. Grenfell¹,²; ¹National Institutes of Health, USA, ²Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Penn State University, USA, ³School of Public Health and Health Services, George Washington University, USA, ⁴Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, USA

Emerging parasitic diseases in wildlife: A case study of echinococcus multilocularis in The Netherlands [6B.4]
K. Takumi*¹, M. Vervaeke², A. de Vries¹, B. Losson³,
P. Teunis¹, JWB van de Giessen¹; ¹National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, The Netherlands, ²University of Antwerp, Belgium, ³Université de Liège, Belgium

17:00

Spatiotemporal dynamics of meningitis in Niger: Hotspots and co-infections [6A.5]
N. Bharti*¹, O.N. Bjornstad¹, A. Djibo², H. Broutin³, R.F. Grais⁴, B.T. Grenfell¹; ¹Penn State University, USA, ²Ministry of Health, Niger, ³National Institutes of Health, USA, ⁴Epicentre, France

Fighting disease-driven extinction: In situ removal of infectious disease threats to wildlife [6B.5]
B.J. Doddington*¹, S.F. Walker¹, M.C. Fisher¹, T.W.J. Garner², J. Bosch³, G. Garcia⁴; ¹Imperial College London, UK, ²Institute of Zoology, UK, ³Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Spain, ⁴Durrell Wildlife Conservation Trust, UK, ⁵Govern de les Illes Balears, Spain, ⁶Centre d'Estudi i Conservació Herpetologic, Spain

17:20

Early detection of dengue outbreaks in Thailand using a spatial-temporal hidden Markov surveillance model [6A.6]
N.G. Reich¹, J. Lessler*¹, S. Iamsirithaworn², R. Brookmeyer¹, D.A.T. Cummings¹; ¹Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, USA, ²Ministry of Public Health, Thailand

Predictive ecological models of West Nile virus transmission in New York City [6B.6]
J.M. Drake*¹, K. Magori¹, W. Bajwa²; ¹University of Georgia, USA, ²New York Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, USA

17:40 – 19:20

Poster Session Two and Drinks Reception
Aegean Ballroom

19:30

Buses leave for optional Conference Dinner at the Aigli Restaurant, National Gardens of Athens

Friday, 4 December 2009

09:00

Plenary [INV5] Chair: S. Bonhoeffer
Viral diseases drive African ape decline
P. Walsh; VaccinApe, USA Mediterranean Ballroom

09:40

Plenary [INV6]
What I wish modelling could do for global health
P. Piot; Imperial College London, UK

10:50

Determining the kernel of an animal epidemic using limited, incomplete, or ongoing data [7A.1]
C. Rorres*¹, S.T.K. Pelletier¹, M. Keeling², G. Smith¹,; ¹University of Pennsylvania, USA, ²University of Warwick, UK

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Analysis of cost-effectiveness of school closure strategies in the novel H1N1 2009 influenza pandemic [7B.1]
L. Pellis, N.M. Ferguson; Imperial College London, UK

11:10

Cattle movement network and the potential for transmission of endemic infections [7A.2]
V.V. Volkova*, R. Howey, N.J. Savill, M.E.J. Woolhouse; University of Edinburgh, UK

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Can reactive school closures help critical care provision during the current influenza pandemic? [7B.2]
T. House; University of Warwick, UK

11:30

Molecular epidemiology of white spot syndrome virus [7A.3]
B.T.M. Dieu, M.P. Zwart*, H. Marks, M.C.M. de Jong, J.M. Vlak; Wageningen University, The Netherlands

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Vaccination against pandemic influenza A/H1N1v in England: a real-time economic evaluation [7B.3]
M. Baguelin¹*, A. J. Van Hoek¹, Mark Jit¹, S. Flasche¹,², P. White¹, , W.J.Edmunds¹, ¹Health Protection Agency, UK, ²London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK

11:50

Dynamics and control of E. coli O157 infection among Scottish cattle farms [7A.4]
X.-S. Zhang*, M.E. Chase-Topping, N.J. Savill¹, M.E.J. Woolhouse; University of Edinburgh, UK

Modelling H1N1 Pandemic with InfluSim tells us to enforce social distancing among kids [7B.4]
M. Schwehm¹, B. Vidondo², S.O. Brockmann³ ,M. Eichner*⁴
¹ExploSYS GmbH, Leinfelden, Germany, ²Bundesamt für Gesundheit, Switzerland, ³Baden-Württemberg State Health Office, Germany, ⁴University of Tübingen, Germany

13:10

Closing Plenary (INV7] Chair: J.A.P. Heesterbeek
Climate change and vector borne disease: What to expect
R. Colwell; University of Maryland, USA Mediterranean Ballroom

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13:50

Presentation of Poster Awards and Closing Address